Olympic Year 2020, in Japan 50 Percent of Women are over 50 Years Old

Big issues of Japan as the population decline countdown
河合 雅司 プロフィール

What options do we have left?

And even so, accomplishing a TFR of 1.8 will not actually halt the progress of shoushika.

This is because the rate required for population replacement (the level at which population does not decline) is 2.07, a far cry from 1.8.

What options do we have left?


Speaking only in terms of the realm of possibility, slightly slowing the speed of the declining birth rate is one (differing TFRs between 1.00 and 1.99 will affect the time needed for the population to be reduced by half).

The faster we approach the population halving point, the less time we have to deal with the changes that come with it.

Conversely, the higher the TFR rises, the more population decline slows, affording society with much needed time to adapt, which means that initiatives to raise the total fertility rate can not be neglected, even just as a means of buying time for other shoushika counter measures.

Photo by iStock

"Mirai no Nenpyo" Contents


Part 1 The Population Decline Countdown

2016: Less than 1,000,000 New Babies
2017: Dawn of the “Grandma Empire”
2018: National Universities Face Bankruptcy
2019: Status as a Technical Superpower Shaken by IT Engineer Shortage
2020: Fifty Percent of all Women are Over Fifty Years Old
2021: Mass Exodus From the Caregiving Industry
2022: “Single Occupancy” Becomes Society’s Norm
2023: Peak Labor Costs Make Business Untenable
2024: “Extreme Senior Citizenry” One in Three are Over Sixty-five Years Old
2025: Population Decline Reaches Tokyo
2026: 7,000,000 Suffering from Dementia
2027: Japan Loses Blood
2030: Rural Stores, Banks, and Retirement Homes Disappear
2033: One Third of All Homes Stands Vacant
2035: Birth of the “Bachelor Nation”
2039: Deaths Outpace Cremation 
2040: Half of All Local Governments Collapse
2042: Senior Citizen Numbers Peak near 40,000,000
2045: One Third of Tokyo Reaches Old Age
2050: Japan Competes with Other Countries for Food
2065~ Foreign Occupation of Unpopulated Areas of Japan

Part 2: What Can Be Done for the Next Generation?
Ten Prescriptions to Save an Ailing Japan

Five Choices to Keep Japan’s Dwindling Fire Alight
Strategic Shrinking
  1 Reducing “The Elderly”
2 Shedding the 24-hour Society
3 Delineating Non-Residential Areas
4 Land Merging on a Nationwide Scale
5 Thorough International Division of Labor
Preserving Japan’s Riches
6 Putting the Artisan’s Skills to Work
7 Cultivating Human Resources With Government Funded Education
Escape from Tokyo
8 Moving Middle and Old Age Citizens to the Countryside
9 Establishing a “Second” Citizen System
Counteracting the Declining Birthrate
10 Ten Million Yen for Third Children and Beyond

Afterword To You, Who Carry The Future

Mirai no Nenpyo
Mirai no Nenpyo 2